A new research project implemented by Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia reveals a dramatic future due to global warming. According the research Middle East and North Africa could become so hot that human habitability is compromised. The goal of limiting global warming to less than two degrees Celsius, agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario. The temperature during summer in the already very hot Middle East and North Africa will increase more than two times faster compared to the average global warming. This means that during hot days temperatures south of the Mediterranean will reach around 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century. Such extremely hot days will occur five times more often than was the case at the turn of the millennium. In combination with increasing air pollution by windblown desert dust, the environmental conditions could become intolerable and may force people to migrate.
In addition, the duration of heat waves in North Africa and the Middle East will prolong dramatically. Between 1986 and 2005, it was very hot for an average period of about 16 days, by mid-century it will be unusually hot for 80 days per year. At the end of the century, up to 118 days could be unusually hot, even if greenhouse gas emissions decline again after 2040. “If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections,” says Panos Hadjinicolaou, Associate Professor at the Cyprus Institute and climate change expert.
Let’s decide it, Climate Refugees streams will be Unstoppable and the international community has to find a proper policy response, much more humanitarian and effective than the one to refugees from Syria.
It is obvious that the funding and implementation of proper mitigation and adaptation policies becomes a matter of life or death for many parts of the planet. Unfortunately, it seems that, despite the recent Paris agreement, the international policy responses continue according a “business as usual” scenario and the crucial issue of funding the necessary measures is still unsolved. From this point of view, the international community seems Incapable to manage the greatest threat for the planet…